45 ideas. Three areas. Two lenses.
I keep every idea in one inbox and write down the same things for each: who has the problem, what they do today, and the riskiest assumption. This page sorts all of them by what they are for, when their market is ready, and which human needs they serve. The placements are my judgment, not data.
My take on vertical AI
I researched 46 industries, one by one. Each looked different. Looked at together, the same five problems kept repeating, and only about ten of the 46 actually have a lead-generation problem. So vertical AI is not a chatbot per industry. It is software that joins the money spent to the outcome that matters, inside each industry's own system of record.
The three areas
What changes in one year, and in three
Agencies in-house their reporting first. Private-equity roll-ups turn single shops into multi-location buyers. AI answers take clicks away from local media.
In 3 yearsAgents plan and buy media. Vertical AI winners own the join between the ad stack and the system of record. Generic dashboards are free.
AI tutors are cheap and everywhere. Parents want judgment, not answers. Solo builders multiply.
In 3 yearsTrust, memory and real human connection are the scarce things. Your personal context becomes the product.
Evals, cost and context are the pains teams pay for now: did the change help, what did the answer cost, and what did the agent know.
In 3 yearsAgent identity, authority and multi-agent correctness become standard infrastructure. Middle layers keep getting bought (OpenRouter, Hugging Face bid).
Which human needs does each area serve?
Manfred Max-Neef argued that human needs are few and the same everywhere; only the ways we meet them change. The best products meet several needs at once. Each cell counts the ideas in an area that touch a need.
The vertical and infrastructure ideas serve money, safety and understanding. None of them touch affection or play. The consumer ideas reach belonging, identity and freedom, and earn the least. The life-lessons site, AI Fellows and Threshold each meet four needs at once.
One idea that is both a business and meaningful would sit where the consumer needs meet the infrastructure skills: AI that helps a person or a family, built on context they can trust.